Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgements and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications.

Key Features:

• This book demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions.
• It examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors.
• It combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history.
• It provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history.
• It is written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.


Author: Brennen Fagan, Ian Horwood, Niall MacKay
Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 09/27/2023
Series: Asa-CRC Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society
Pages: 228
Weight: 0.62lbs
Size: 8.50h x 5.50w x 0.51d
ISBN: 9781138592384

About the Author


Dr Brennen Fagan is a postdoctoral research associate supported by the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity and the Department of Mathematics at the University of York. He received his PhD in Mathematics, working with the York Historical Warfare Analysis Group to better understand human conflict by examining and modelling historical war data, and now studies the mathematics of biodiversity change.

Dr Ian Horwood is a historian at York St John University, where he is Senior Lecturer. His principal interests are in US military history, airpower history and the wars in Indochina. Dr Horwood received his PhD in History from the University of Leeds.

Professor Niall MacKay is a mathematician and theoretical physicist at the University of York. He has interests in military history, operations research and combat modelling. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Durham University.

Dr Christopher Price is Senior Lecturer in History at York St John University. His main areas of interest are political, economic and military history in the twentieth century, especially British and US history in the period surrounding the Great Depression, the two World Wars and the Cold War. He received his PhD in History from the University of York.

Professor Andrew James (Jamie) Wood is a mathematician and systems biologist at the University of York. He specializes in the simulation and analysis of complex systems, and has interests across a range of modern international history and the analysis of warfare. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Imperial College London.